India set to overtake China to become most populous country by April end, says UN

 India will soon have 3 million more people than China

The UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs has revealed this development in a press release. The forecast is based on their latest estimates of global population. The release says that in 2022, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates (1.2 births per woman). India’s current fertility rate (2.0 births per woman) is just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run in the absence of migration. Also, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in India.

"India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China. In India, the number of adults of working age is projected to continue increasing both in number and as a proportion of the total population through mid-century, providing opportunities for faster economic growth over the next few decades. Meanwhile in China, projections indicate that the percentage of the population at ages 25-64 will peak in the coming years, closing the window of opportunity created by the changing age distribution," the release reads.

India also enacted policies to discourage the formation of large families and to slow population growth, including through its national family welfare programme beginning in the 1950s. "India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China," it added.

The development and back to back studies come at a time when India is hosting G20 this year. However , it's not clear when India's population will surpass China's. India is also yet to see a census count since 2011 which has been further pushed ahead due to Covid pandemic.

As of now, India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 2.2 to 2.0 at the national level between NFHS 4 and NFHS 5.