Yes, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a massive rebellion and high-profile defection in poll-bound Karnataka but the Congress too is dealing with fissures within the party. The BJP has denied poll tickets to some stalwarts, but it still has the support of Yediyurappa and CM Basavaraj Bommai. The Congress, meanwhile, may get a chance this time to expand its Lingayat vote base in Karnataka with the induction of two prominent leaders. But Lingayat votes are not enough. The support of all the castes and even sub-castes is equally important for a political party to win the polls, according to analysts.
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1. Divided in Lingayat votes
BJP: The saffron party is seen as a "Lingayat party". Keeping up with this perception, the BJP has left no stone unturned to retain the support of BS Yediyurappa. Yediyurappa has been a tall Lingayat leader associated with the BJP for a long time — except in 2013 when he quit the BJP and launched his own party, causing a heavy crash for the saffron party. The BJP also has Bommai, another Lingayat leader, as the chief minister of the state. Moreover, it decided to give a ticket to Channabasappa, a Lingayat leader, rather than to KS Eshwarappa's family.
Congress: Congress, too, is losing its candidates. However, the shift of two Lingayat leaders — former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi — from the BJP to the Congress has given hope to the latter. Congress leader Siddaramaiah said the induction of Shettar will give a "boost" to the party.
The Congress has also started projecting the BJP as an "anti-Lingayat" party. This tag significantly impacted the Congress in 1989 — when prominent Banajiga Lingayat community leader and former Karnataka CM Veerendra Patil was unceremoniously removed from his chief ministerial post by Rajiv Gandhi. Lingayats have stayed away from Congress since then.
Analysis: Experts told CNBTV18.com that if Congress manages to take even 25-30 percent of Lingayat votes, "then it is over for the BJP". The Congress won't be able to gain all Lingayat votes, but even 25-30 percent votes may help it win the polls comfortably. The BJP can collapse if a significant section of the Lingayat community shifts their allegiance towards Congress.
However, the BJP is still confident of winning the polls. Yediyurappa said the exit of the two leaders won't affect the party in any way while Bommai said his party will manage to cover up for the loss and win the polls.
Support of sub-castes
BJP: KV Prasad, a senior journalist and political analyst, said the "BJP is not bothered about sub-castes (ST, SC, OBCs) and Muslims in particular". This might affect vote share of the upcoming polls.
News 18 reported that until the previous election in 2018, Bommai, who is contesting from Shiggaon, enjoyed the support of the Muslim community apart from the Lingayat votes. However, the BJP objecting to hijab, Halal and the most recent decision by the Bommai government to remove the four percent reservation allotted to Muslims to accommodate the demands of a higher reservation by the Lingayats and Vokkaligas, might impact the voting pattern in this crucial seat.
Congress: The Congress has fielded a Muslim leader against Bommai to take on the issues of Muslim rights and freedom and how the BJP mismanaged the community’s trust, party sources told News18. The party is hoping to cash in on the growing discontent of Muslims against the BJP.
Analysis: An analyst said that three major issues will make Muslims vote for Congress.
"First, scrapping the four percent Muslim reservation and giving it to two dominant communities belonging to Hindus — Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Second, banning of cow slaughter, which according to Muslims, is a direct onslaught on their food habits as well as on their employment. Third is the hijab issue which has deprived thousands of girls from going to schools, especially in coastal Karnataka," political analyst SA Hemanth was quoted by News 18 as saying.
"While these three issues have brought Muslims together, it, however, has not united the Hindus," he added.
3. Poll strategies
BJP: It seems the party is following the Gujarat model in Karnataka. Analysts say the BJP wants to bring a change with young leaders for two reasons: First, to make a connection with the electorate. Second, it helps the party eliminate the anger among people associated with local and old leaders. This strategy has worked in Gujarat and Goa but is to be seen how it would work in Karnataka. Hopes are still alive that this might benefit the party in the long run.
Congress: The grand old party's strategy revolves around dubbing the BJP as an "anti-Lingayat" and corrupt party. And this might sway the people in Karnataka away from the BJP. The BJP is already facing issues of anti-incumbency with allegations of corruption by the Bommai-led BJP government coming to light.
Analysis: It is expected that the BJP would counterattack the Congress with claims about freebies, and developments work in the state. The BJP's move to keep Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditynath as star campaigners might influence people. The PM is expected to turn the table on Congress's record of corruption and how Congress failed in fulfilling poll promises.
With Brahmastra Modi campaign, Yogi X-factor, BJP says #Karnataka drive ‘will soon hit top gear’
Who will have the upper hand in the upcoming #KarnatakaElections2023?@AmanKayamHai_ explains the power dynamics! #BJP #Congress pic.twitter.com/LVsxicUaMC— News18 (@CNNnews18) April 19, 2023
4. Leadership
BJP: The BJP is being "pragmatic" with its strategy, according to a News18 analysis. "The party has not been able to go beyond Yediyurappa and create a leader of that stature. However, there's a desire to move to the next generation, but the narrative has not changed as the old guard remains relevant.
Congress: The Congress faces the "problem of plenty". It has many leaders — besides the state leaders, Congress president is Mallikarjun Kharge. Veteran leaders Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar are both aspirants of the chief ministerial post in the state and have often found themselves in a banter. However, the Congress is looking to rein them in and strategise at maximising the number of seats as much as possible.
To add to this quagmire, former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and ex-deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi's entry into Congress from BJP makes things difficult for the high command, in case of a victory.
Analysis: The BJP and the Congress both lag when it comes to the leadership issue. However, the BJP seems to be in a better position in this case with the clarity among the high command on who they want to keep and who they can afford to do away with.
#Live: Battle for Karnataka!BJP releases second list; Watch other top news of this morning | #KarnatakaElections2023 https://t.co/Ewx0nMA8SL
— News18 (@CNNnews18) April 13, 2023
The Karnataka election results are expected to have far-reaching implications for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Being the only southern state that BJP has gained entry into, and where Congress relies heavily from waning further, the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections could just turn the fate of the two national parties. Click here to read in detail about the importance of the Karnaraka elections.
(Edited by : Pradeep John)
First Published: Apr 21, 2023 8:00 AM IST
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