India set to overtake China to become most populous country by April end, says UN

Confirming a demographic shift in terms of rising population, the United Nations (UN) on Monday said that by the end of April, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China.

China’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century. By contrast, India’s population is expected to continue growing for several decades, the UN said.

This is not the first report indicating this trajectory. According to The UN's State of World Population Report 2023 released recently,  India will become the world's most populous country by mid-2023, surpassing China's 1.425 billion people by about 3 million.

 India will soon have 3 million more people than China

The UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs has revealed this development in a press release. The forecast is based on their latest estimates of global population. The release says that in 2022, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates (1.2 births per woman). India’s current fertility rate (2.0 births per woman) is just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run in the absence of migration. Also, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in India.

"India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China. In India, the number of adults of working age is projected to continue increasing both in number and as a proportion of the total population through mid-century, providing opportunities for faster economic growth over the next few decades. Meanwhile in China, projections indicate that the percentage of the population at ages 25-64 will peak in the coming years, closing the window of opportunity created by the changing age distribution," the release reads.

India also enacted policies to discourage the formation of large families and to slow population growth, including through its national family welfare programme beginning in the 1950s. "India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China," it added.

The development and back to back studies come at a time when India is hosting G20 this year. However , it's not clear when India's population will surpass China's. India is also yet to see a census count since 2011 which has been further pushed ahead due to Covid pandemic.

As of now, India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 2.2 to 2.0 at the national level between NFHS 4 and NFHS 5.